By Chris Dixon, One World Editor

The Greek Owned, Bahamian Flagged and Liberian Registered Prestige -- Our Vote for the Most Ironically Named Ship Ever.

Is the worst over, or yet to come in the saga of the Spanish oil tanker disaster? This seems to depend on whether or not the bulk of the dirty heating oil the Prestige was carrying does as scientists would like. It is hoped that the oil will remain in the ship's tanks and congeal into a waxy mass that stays 11,000 feet down, at the bottom of the very cold ocean. If this happens, many of the 22 million gallons will never reach shore.

However, initial reports seem to show that this scenario may not come to pass -- at least not entirely. Large amounts of oil are still appearing on the surface of an increasingly stormy north Atlantic and heading towards shores of Spain and Portugal. "It looks like this could be far worse than the Erika," said Gilles Asenjo, president of Surfrider Europe.

The Erika was a tanker that lost about 3 million gallons of crude off the coast of Brittany, France in 1999. There it polluted about 250 miles of coastline. The Prestige was carrying about 22 million gallons when it sank. According to Asenjo, the ironically named ship was an accident waiting to happen. "She was a ship flagged in the Bahamas, registered in Liberia (an anarchic African country) and owned by the Greeks," he said, "she was subject to very few inspection rules and was probably weakened and rusty just like the Erika." Indeed, French president Jaques Chirac called the Prestige a "garbage" ship whose very existence seemed to be based on the idea of avoiding European safety and environmental regulations.

You Drive a Gas Guzzler, She Guzzles Gas.

According to Surfrider's Asenjo, the captain of the ship initially reported the damage to be far less than it actually was, and this may have led to the decision to tow the ship a hundred fifty miles offshore rather than attempting to get it into a safe harbor where it could be pumped out. Regardless of the decision, a great deal of oil was destined to foul the Spanish coast, but perhaps far less would have leaked had the ship been able to get to calmer waters.

A lack of calmer waters of course, is what caused the biggest problem once the Prestige was towed well offshore. There, her weakened hull couldn't stand up the battering of the wintertime North Atlantic and she split in two.

According to Surfline's Sean Collins, the place where she sank could not be much worse given an impending storm and ocean currents in the area. Collins said that the location of the sinking could create a catastrophic condition should oil continue rising to the surface. This is because the wind-driven ocean currents branch here, with one stream flowing east to west along the north coast of Spain toward France, and a strong north-south current that flows along the coast of Portugal. With a tremendous storm now approaching the European coast, twice as much oil as was in the Exxon Valdez could affect both stretches of coast, and the prime surf and fishing grounds found here. "You would hope that the ship sank far enough out to sea that it won't affect the north coast of Spain," Collins said, "but it's tough to tell."

Principle in the equation is a huge approaching gale. "They had 25 to 30 foot seas in last Friday's storm," he said, "but this next storm is substantially bigger. I'd rate this one an 8 out of ten. You could say it's twice as big"

According to Collins, the storm will begin with 12 to 18 hours of southerly winds in the 35-40 knot range. These south winds may blow long enough to take a portion of the oil northward and into the current that would carry it along Spain's north coast.

"After that," he said, "you've got a northwesterly gale blowing through on Wednesday with winds in the 55-65 knot range. The seas will build tomorrow and then by Thursday the surf along the coast here will be 40 to 45 feet high."

This, he says, would then push the oil southward to Portugal." You have a major swell coming in. Then add to that 30 to 40 knots of west wind, and it could really push this oil onto land."

This, of course, would only enhance what is already a disaster on a scale most California surfers can scarcely imagine. Despite the fact that many billions of gallons of crude pass along our shores each year, only a few comparatively minor spills have blackened California's shores. It's the Euros who have truly suffered.

Besides the Erika, numerous monster spills have occurred in Europe in the last decade. In 1993, the Brear released 26 million gallons off the Shetland Islands, in 1992 the Aegean Sea lost 22 million gallons off northwestern Spain and in 1996 the Sea Empress spilled 18 million gallons off Wales in 1996"

It could affect so much coast," said Asenjo, "from Portugal to the Spanish coast that includes breaks like Mundaka and maybe as far as France." Not only will surfers be affected, so will countless sea creatures, coastal residents and fishermen whose livelihoods are now shattered.

What remains to be seen is just how bad it will get.

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