Hurricane Guru Predicts 2006 Season

These techniques determine the likelihood of a major hurricane hitting the eastern seaboard and the gulf coast. “The idea is that the more active the season, the greater the likelihood of landfall,” notes Klotzbach. According to his determined probabilities of hurricane landfall in 2006 East Coasters will need to batten down the hatches. The East Coast and Florida Peninsula has a 69% chance of hurricane landfall, compared to the 1900-1999 average of 31%. The Gulf Coast has a 38% chance of hurricane landfall, compared to the 1900-1999 average of 30%.

The prognosis though serves as a double-edged sword. Surfers get amped for the onslaught of swells created by hurricanes, but after the recent devastation caused by storms like Katrina these landfall predictions prove ominous. Klotzbach reiterates that his predictions are still only predictions. “You obviously cannot say more than a few days in advance when or where storms are going to strike; however, we have found that you can say with moderate skill whether or not the East Coast or Gulf Coast is more likely to be hit by major hurricanes this year.”

There are also certain variables that can impede hurricane activity. El Niño, which increases vertical wind sheer, inhibits seasonal activity - although Klotzbach doesn’t think that will be the case this year.

Collectively, CSU’s hurricane prediction team is adamant that the 2006 tropical storm season will follow suit with its predecessors. When Klotzbach was asked to rank this year’s hurricane season on a scale from 1 to 10 he said, “I would probably give it an 8… Since from our landfall probabilities it looks like the East Coast will be considerably threatened by hurricane activity this year.”

With all the proverbial fingers pointing towards another huge season of swell, East Coasters can bask in the summer sun grasping onto the credo that it’s almost over. Soon the transient invaders will be sucked back to their homelands by the tractor beam of pissed off employers, and the waves will no longer ripple like the remnants of a fat kid’s cannonball at the public pool. For the fall will arrive, accompanied by sanity and great surf.