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Top 45 Superfreaks
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This category speaks for itself. The sky is the limit for these surfers. |
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Most telling stat: 91.2% win ratio.
Vs. Top 5: 80% 0-2 vs. Andy Irons.
At his best: Wherever he hangs his hat. |
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1. Mick Fanning 26, Coolangatta, Australia
The World Champion is the third most owned surfer leading up to the season opener. But before the masses make you doubt his ability, bear in mind that he is the most owned of any surfer that competed on tour last year. Considering his price tag, which is up at $12,500,000, the fact that 61% of players on this commodity says a lot. Fanning’s obsessive commitment to the quest in ‘07 was unrivaled, and his 91% win rate—the most dominant in ASP history—bordered on superhuman. Fanning finished third place or better in every event minus one, making him the most vital Fantasy Surfer pick of all time, and all signs point to the trend continuing. Our advice for ‘08: Don’t bet against him. |
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Most telling stat: 20% win rate in round 1
Vs. Top 5: 62.5%
2-0 vs. Kelly Slater
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2. Taj Burrow 29, Yallingup, Australia
By year’s end in 2007, Taj Burrow had joined the same sorry club as Cheyne Horan and Gary Elkerton by finishing second place in the world rankings for the third time in his career. If he’s looking for a way out of this dud of a party, one place he might want to examine is his first-round heats, where last year he failed to win eight out of 10 times, forcing him to surf an extra round. Compare that to Mick Fanning’s nine wins out of 10 and one realizes the real disparity between what Taj has done, and what it takes to cross the threshold. Taj has indicated 2008 will be his last full-blown effort at a title run, and one of the gnarliest off-season training regimens in history will certainly have him prepared for the first event. Taj is as focused and committed as he has ever been. Last year, Taj had a solid 62% win rate vs. the Top Five, going 2-0 vs. Kelly Slater. You’d be a fool to ignore Taj’s importance in 2008. |
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Most telling stat: 0% vs. Top 5 (0/3)
Win rate: 78.8%
At his best: Anywhere.
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3. Kelly Slater 36, Cocoa Beach, Florida
Slater’s fitness, finesse, talent, and ability are never worth questioning, but for the past few years his desire to win has been. Truth is, the answers vary day-to-day, which is why if he’s not hedging his bets, he’s protecting the innermost workings of his mind. That kind of waffling is what keeps pundits like us from penciling him in as a potential nine-time champion. Last year we predicted it would take serious mental commitment for Kelly to have a crack at another title. His 0-3 record vs. the Top Five was his lowest ever, and evidence his commitment wasn’t there. Of course, keeping the hunger going all year long is tough—if not impossible—for a guy with eight world titles and a wealth of outside opportunities. Kelly’s been candid in explaining how much love he has left to give the tour, versus what it takes to win. That said, never doubt what’s buried way underneath with this guy. He came back to the tour when he sensed a real challenge to his authority, and eventually, he re-asserted his dominance. In 2008, if the hunger strikes, there’s more meat than ever for an old lion to savor. And if Slater is surfing, he will be a factor, even if he just wants to humble some new blood. But choosing Slater for your Fantasy Surfer team will always be a game-time decision. Our advice: Keep your eyes on the tabloids before you pay up. |
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Most telling stat: only won 1 heat in six encounters with the Top 6.
Win rate: 71.42%
Worst result: 33rd at Lowers
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4. Joel Parkinson 26, Coolangatta, Australia
With each passing year, it seems more and more likely that Joel Parkinson will become just another “great surfer to never win a world title.” Time and again, his laid-back style, both in and out of the water, has been credited as the cause for his failure to seal the deal. But looking at the numbers, it becomes clear that this is not necessarily the case. If you discount his 33rd at Lowers—the only blemish on what was an otherwise outstanding year—Parko’s win ratio of 80.39% was second only to Fanning’s. So, what went wrong? And why hasn’t Parko won a title yet? You needn’t look further than his relationships with his contemporaries. In a cutthroat competitive environment, it can be tough to win events when your buddies and adversaries are among the best surfers in the world. Parko needs to separate his competitive life from his social. Furthermore, he won only one heat of the eight encounters he had with the top six, losing 0-2 to Mick Fanning, Bede Durbidge and A.I. As they say, to be the best, you have to beat the best, and this is clearly where Parko’s problem lies. Part of it is his inability to grind out a heat—if things don’t go well from the outset, he struggles with his rhythm. However, his incredible consistency against most of the field is an attribute that can’t be overlooked. If he manages to better his record against the top dogs, Parko is, literally, one or two heat-wins away from a maiden world title. |
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Most telling stat: 35.71% win ratio in the second half of the season, not counting the event he missed in Brazil. And he still finished in 6th place.
Win ratio: 65.1%
Vs. Top 5: 60
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6. Andy Irons 29, Hanalei, Hawaii
Although he revealed some emotional cracks during Slater’s return to the top, not until a string of shocking results capped the second half of 2007 was there a clear sign that his inner demons had the better of Andy Irons. Despite this he still had a winning record vs. the top Top Five and a remarkable 2-0 vs. the World Champion, Mick Fanning. But the only competitor Andy needs to concern himself with this year is the one in the mirror. Word on the street, however, says that AI’s been training hard in the off-season and has been spotted charging (and taking some beatings) at the Superbank pre-event. If he is even remotely focused this year, he’ll be contending for the title. |
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34. Jordy Smith 20, Durban, South Africa
With 80% of Fantasy Surfer players owning Jordy Smith 24 hours before the season opener at Snapper, its clear that every one in Fantasyland is caught up in the hype surrounding the young South African. And why not? Coming in at a meager $4,500,000, his stock is guaranteed to inflate rapidly. Understand, this kid is the full package. He has all the New Millennial trickery combined with some of the most fluid, powerful rail-work in the business, both in big waves and small. However, the hype extends beyond the Fanatasy Surfer chat rooms, and as a result the rest of the 45 have their crosshairs fixed on him. Smith’s biggest hurdle will be living up to expectations. As a wildcard at Trestles last year, he beat Joel Parkinson and Andy Irons back-to-back, and that came nine months after joining them both in a final at Sunset in 2006, where he finished second. Before that, he placed third at the Billabong Pro in J-Bay as a rookie, illustrating that he is already pretty comfortable in the top flight. |
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35. Dane Reynolds 22, Ventura, California
The World Tour is primed and ready for Dane Reynolds, but the question is:
Is Dane Reynolds ready for the World Tour? His talent can’t be called into
question—for the past five years, Dane’s redefined what is possible on a
surfboard—and after a few solid performances in Hawaii at Second Reef Pipe
and colossal Sunset, he’s proven that his arsenal extends beyond small waves
and into the heavy-water arena as well. He dealt Mick his worst loss of the
season last year at the Boost Mobile when the champ failed to match Dane’s
aerial repetoire. Which leaves only one chink in Dane’s armor: his
commitment to the tour. The only thing that can stop Dane from winning a
world title is Dane himself. He’s been completely candid and forthright when
it comes to discussing his apathetic approach to competitive surfing. In a
recent interview for SURFER, Dane was quoted as saying: “I don’t feel like
competitive surfing is near the cutting edge of surfing, which doesn’t quite
make sense to me.” From where we sit, it doesn’t matter how much natural
talent you have; you’ll never win a world title if you don’t truly want one.
Nevertheless, Fantasy Surfer players are a smart bunch and they know that his stock will go up, regardless of his enthusiasm for the tour. If a spark is ignited inside Dane, look out world.
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