With the top of the ASP ratings having been largely locked up heading into Brazil, all eyes are now on the bottom end of the World Tour rankings, where careers are hanging in the balance as the season winds down. Today saw some shifting around the ratings near that all-important 27th spot, which is the cutoff to requalify for next year.

After finishing with another disappointing 17th place finish today, the future of South African rookie Jordy Smith’s career now hinges on his performance at Pipeline. The highly-touted rookie has now dropped from 22nd to the 24th in the ratings, and depending on what happens Sunday, he could fall more. Both Timmy Reyes and Mikael Picon overtook him today in good surf at Praia Da Vila, after advancing on into Round Four. They could open up the gap even more depending on how well they do from here. Meanwhile, Damien Hobgood and Heitor Alvez are still lurking, sitting just behind Smith at the moment, but both have decent shots at overtaking him before they leave Brazil.

Damien Hobgood only needs to advance out of one more heat to pass Smith, while local boy Heitor Alvez will have to make it out of two more, into the semifinals. Damien came to Brazil needing a solid result to get out of his dangerous 30th slot in the ratings. So far it’s mission accomplished in terms of a decent result, but one more heat will make it a “solid” one. Hobgood has a tough match in Round Four, as he’ll be facing Bede Durbidge, a man who never rattles easily. Look for Hobgood to be going on the longer lefts while Durbidge will try to do damage on the against-the-grain righthanders. Regardless of what happens, Hobgood will at least find himself in a better position to requalify as he heads into Pipeline.

Needless to say, CJ Hobgood, who’s also still alive, will have a little extra motivation in Round Four since he can directly help his brother’s cause by knocking out Heitor Alves, who’s now running neck and neck with Damien and Jordy Smith near that elusive cutoff line. Right there with them after Brazil you’ll also find Chris Ward (who’s already lost) and Ben Bourgeois, who’s still going, but needs a huge result (read: semifinals) to really get in the mix.

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